KSN News Poll still shows Davis ahead of Brownback in race for governor

KSN News Poll results for July 24th, 2014

WICHITA, Kansas — There are only three months remaining until the November election, and the KSN News Poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV by SurveyUSA still shows Kansas Governor Sam Brownback losing to his Democratic challenger, Paul Davis.

In that race, Davis leads Brownback 48% to 40% with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%.

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 Kansan adults from July 17 – 22. Of those, 2,079 were registered to vote. Of the number of people registered, 1,208 voters were determined to be likely to vote in the General Election on November 4.

Looking ahead to the 11/04/14 General Election (see results)

In fact, Davis has gained one point over KSN’s last poll conducted in June and Brownback has lost one point.

Davis was backed earlier this month by 100 high profile Kansas Republicans.

He now has an eight point lead over current Governor Sam Brownback.

pollresults-300-140724bKSN political expert Jeff Jarman says he expects this race to go down to the wire.

“I think this race is going to be very close,” said Jarman.

One reason Davis is holding steady and even gaining a little there is a slight shift of more Republicans who say they will vote for Paul Davis come November. The KSN News Poll shows 29% of registered Republicans are planning on voting for Davis. That is up from 24% in June.

Jarman says you can expect Governor Sam Brownback to try and find a way to get some of those back.

“We will see those numbers move. The governor has not started to aggressively campaign yet, and when that happens, we should definitely expect the numbers to change and fluctuate,” continued Jarman.

Jarman says Brownback has been known state-wide for wanting to hold the line on school funding, and he says that is an area where the campaigns will remain very different with Paul Davis wanting to spend much more on education.

Among voters who say the most important issue in the governor’s election is education, Davis has a 4-to-1 lead.

KSN reached out to Brownback’s campaign.  His campaign manager responded with this quote:

“Governor Brownback will work to improve the quality of education by working to improve the fourth-grade reading scores and continue to invest in career and technical education programs.”

Among voters who say the most important issue in the governor’s election is tax rates, Brownback leads Davis 5-to-3.

While Paul Davis has the lead, Governor Sam Brownback is expected to point out the differences between the two candidates once the primary is over and the race to the finish line goes into full swing.

KSN questioned Jarman if campaigning from Sam Brownback would be enough to catch Paul Davis.

“The governor, we should expect to see him push back and push back hard, especially in September and October, and I think the race will tighten quite a bit,” said Jarman.

In a breakdown, the poll reveals the older you are, the less you like Governor Sam Brownback. He trails by 20 points among seniors, and trails by 13 points among those age 50 to 64.

Davis said he is pleased his lead is holding, and he plans to continue his campaign of building coalitions.

“Well, I’ve got a 12 year record of bringing Democrats and Republicans together and building coalitions, and I think we need to have somebody in the Governor’s office who is committed to bi-partisanship,” Davis told KSN.

RAW VIDEO: Interview with Paul Davis

Only among voters under age 50 does Brownback have an advantage.

In this age range, Brownback holds 60% of the Republican base, compared to Davis, who holds 89% of the Democratic base.

Independents break for the Democrat by 21 points, but it’s important to point out that the Libertarian ticket of Keen Umbehr and Josh Umbehr takes 13% of Independent votes.

The major issue in the gubernatorial election is education. KSN reached out to Democratic candidate for governor Paul Davis and asked him how he thinks he can make a difference with education in the state of Kansas.

Davis told KSN that it is all about working with both sides of the aisle.

“Well, I’ve got a 12 year record of bringing democrats and republicans together and building coalitions and I think we need to have somebody in the Governor’s office who is committed to bipartisanship,” said Davis.

KSN also reached out to current Governor Sam Brownback Thursday to ask him for specifics on his plan for education in the state.

Brownback’s campaign manager sent KSN the following statement: “Governor Brownback will work to improve the quality of education by working to improve the fourth grade reading scores and continue to invest in career and technical education programs.”

Looking ahead to the August primary (see results)pollresults-300-140724a

Before Brownback can focus on the November election, he has to get past his challenger next month.

In the primary election on August 5, the latest KSN News Poll shows Governor Brownback easily leading over challenger Jennifer Winn 60% to 30% with a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Winn lost 7 points from June poll data.

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 Kansan adults from July 17 – 22. Of those, 2,079 were registered to vote. Of the number of people registered, 691 were determined to be likely to vote in the Republican primary election on August 5.

“Even though they are lower then the origination that you guys (KSN) put out a month ago, it doesn’t deter me, and it doesn’t discourage me because I know how many people we are dealing with on a daily base that have given up or have never even registered because they were tired of politicians,” Winn told KSN Thursday. “My thoughts are is it is really a guessing game and until people actually show up in the polls, we really don’t know. We have a good idea we are doing well for having a $17,000 budget.”

RAW VIDEO: Interview with Jennifer Winn

Methodology

This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically.

The pollster’s report includes the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population.

In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include: the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined. It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors.

Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The Sample

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of Kansas adults 07/17/14 through 07/22/14. Of the adults, 2,079 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 691 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Republican Primary, 322 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Democratic Primary. 1,208 voters were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 General Election.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a survey on their laptop, tablet, smartphone or other electronic device. You must credit KSN-TV if you cite these results.

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