WICHITA, Kansas – The Republican primary election for Kansas’ 4th Congressional district has become a close race between two conservatives. Both incumbent U.S. Congressman Mike Pompeo and challenger Todd Tiahrt have spent a lot of time appealing to their conservative base and both have made an effort to say they are solidly behind the Republican party.
KSN political expert Jeff Jarman tells KSN that there are subtle differences between the two conservative candidates. Jarman says it is the little things that could make a difference at the polls in just about two weeks for the August 5 primary election.
The KSN News Poll released in June, conducted exclusively for KSN-TV by SurveyUSA, showed Pompeo with a 27 point lead among conservative voters. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.
The latest KSN News Poll released Wednesday reveals that Pompeo has dropped five points and Tiahrt has picked up eight, cutting the lead by 12. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.
“The really interesting number that jumps out, I think, is the big swing in moderate Republicans in this poll,” said Jarman. “They went from slightly favoring Pompeo to now favoring Tiahrt.”
In a conservative race, it’s interesting to note that it’s the moderates moving the numbers.
The past month, Tiahrt’s numbers are moving up, while Pompeo’s have come down.
“While there are large, wealthy donors on both sides funding these two campaigns, I think it’s much more likely people are focused on the candidates and their message, not who their external supporters are,” said Jarman.
Jarman also says many who will vote are familiar with Pompeo and Tiahrt and their stance on wanting to cut back or abolish Obamacare, and cut back on government regulations for farming and the aviation industry.
The KSN News Poll is conducted exclusively for KSN-TV by SurveyUSA. The poll released Wednesday has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.
From July 17 – 22, SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 Kansan adults. Of those, 2,079 were registered to vote. Of the number of people registered, 691 were determined to be likely to vote in the Republican primary election on August 5.
The KSN News Poll released in June had a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.
SurveyUSA interviewed 950 registered voters from Kansas’ 4th Congressional district from June 16 – 18. Of the 950 registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 534 were likely to vote in the August 5 primary.