WICHITA, Kansas – With six weeks remaining before the Republican Primary in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Mike Pompeo leads his newly announced primary challenger Todd Tiahrt, according to the KSN News Poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV by SurveyUSA.
Thursday poll results show Pompeo 51%, Tiahrt 34%. Tiahrt held the seat in this district until he resigned to run for the US Senate in 2010. The margin of error in the poll is +/- 4.3 percent.
Pompeo seeks his 3rd term while Tiahrt wants his seat back. Kansas’ 4th Congressional District is heavily Republican. The winner of the 08/05/14 primary is likely to win the general election 11/04/14.
At this time, the KSN News Poll shows Pompeo well positioned to hold the seat. He runs particularly strong among conservatives, where he leads by 27 points. Tiahrt does much better among moderates, where he trails Pompeo by only 3 points.
Pompeo leads by 19 points among men, and by 14 points among women. Pompeo runs strong among seniors, where he leads by 22 points. Tiahrt keeps it closer in the younger age groups, but still trails there by 14 to 15 points.
Tiahrt does comparatively well among lower-income likely Republican primary voters, where Tiahrt trails by 6. But Pompeo overwhelms among the more affluent, where he leads by 23 points.
Respondents said they are most focused on jobs in casting their vote. Among voters focused on jobs, Pompeo leads Tiahrt by 11 points. By comparison, among voters who say that immigration is the most important issue, Pompeo leads Tiahrt by 39 points.
Primary elections can be volatile, and these results may change as both candidates increasingly define themselves and their opponents as Primary Day approaches. On the other hand, Tiahrt is a known commodity in the district, and is not a typical unknown challenger running against a sitting incumbent.
This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically.
The pollster’s report includes the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population.
In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include: the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined. It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors.
Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
SurveyUSA interviewed 950 registered voters from Kansas’ 4th Congressional District 06/16/14 through 06/18/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS), which is also known as Voter List Sample, purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. To qualify for inclusion, a household needed to have voted in at least one previous Congressional primary. Of the 950 registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 534 were likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Primary.
This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (also known as: cell-phone respondents), were called on their cell phones, by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the completion of the interview. You must credit KSN-TV if you cite these results.